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    Macroeconomic dynamics of the third-sector economy: Panel count regression evidence from selected developing (D-8) countries
    (Selçuk Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, 2024) Ahmed, Zobayer; Acet, Hakan
    Background: The third-sector economy, encompassing non-governmental organizations (NGOs), plays a critical role in addressing social and economic issues in developing countries. However, the factors influencing the growth and proliferation of NGOs, particularly in the Developing-8 (D-8) countries, remain under-explored. Previous research has often been fragmented, focusing on isolated factors without considering the broader macroeconomic context. This study seeks to fill this gap by comprehensively analyzing the macroeconomic determinants of the third-sector economy in these developing nations. Objective: The primary aim of this study is to investigate the demand-side and supply-side factors that influence the presence and activity of NGOs in the D-8 countries. By examining variables such as unemployment rates, refugee inflow, environmental pollution, government effectiveness, GDP per capita, education levels, globalization, and foreign aid, the study aims to offer a comprehensive understanding of the socio-economic and institutional conditions contributing to third-sector development. Methodology: The study employs a panel count regression approach to achieve the objectives, utilizing Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models. These models are well-suited for analyzing count data and addressing overdispersion issues in NGO-related datasets. The data spans from 1996 to 2022 and includes demand and supply-side variables. Lagged variables and interaction terms between key variables are also included to explore how different factors significantly impact the growth of the NGO sector. Findings: Although some demand and supply-side variables are found insignificant, Refugee inflow, globalization and net foreign aid positively affect the expected count of NGOs. However, higher levels of educational attainment and pollution levels are negatively and significantly associated with more NGOs in developing countries (D-8). The interaction term between the government effectiveness index (GEI) and pollution level, GEI and globalization, and GEI and education level significantly impact the growth of the third sector. Originality: This study makes original contributions to the literature on the third-sector economy through its unique findings, use of macroeconomic variables and the application of Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models for panel count data analysis in third-sector economy for the first time. Implications: The findings have significant implications for policymakers and stakeholders in the D-8 countries. Enhancing government effectiveness and expanding globalization can significantly boost the third sector, enabling NGOs to address social and economic issues better.