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    The relationship between climate change and political instability: the case of MENA countries (1985:01–2016:12)
    (Springer, 2020) Sofuoğlu E.; Ay A.
    The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between climate change and political instability in the MENA region. To this extent, 18 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries are analyzed covering the period 1985:01–2016:12 with monthly data. In econometric analysis, at first cross-sectional dependency analysis is applied, and existence of cross-sectional dependency among countries is found. Therefore, CADF-second generation panel unit root test applied, and finally, Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality test that consider the cross-sectional dependency are utilized. For empirical analysis, temperature and precipitation data representing climate change, political instability, and conflict data are employed. According to the findings, there is a causal relationship from climate change to political instability in 16 countries and to conflict in 15 countries. In addition to this, at least one causal relationship is determined from climate change to political instability or conflict in all MENA countries. Therefore, empirical results support the assumption that climate change acts as a threat multiplier in MENA countries since it triggers, accelerates, and deepens the current instabilities. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
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    Testing the environmental kuznets curve: Evidence from turkey-bounds test analysis
    (International Economic Society, 2017) Kabaklarli E.; Ay A.
    Turkey is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, but it has doubled its greenhouse gas emissions since the 1990s. Turkey is located in the Mediterranean Basin, which is one of the most disadvantaged regions in terms of climate change. The purpose of this study was to test the Environmental Kuznet’s Curve (EKC) theory for Turkish data between the years 1960-2013. EKC models long term elasticities were estimated using the bound test. The effect of GDP on carbon emissions is significantly positive (10.17) in the long term. However, the negative and significant quadratic term of GDP (-0,57) supports the EKC theory of environmental economics for Turkey. CO2 emissions and GDP relationship is monotonic, whereas CO2 emissions show a decreasing trend due to environmental green growth policies. This study estimated that the turning point for CO2 emissions in Turkey is $7279 (GDP per capita). © International Economic Society.