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    Accessibility modeling in earthquake case considering road closure probabilities: A case study of health and shelter service accessibility in Thessaloniki, Greece
    (ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2016) Ertugay, Kivanc; Argyroudis, Sotiris; Duzgun, H. Sebnem
    One of the main focuses of disaster management is to decrease the impact of disasters by developing efficient emergency management plans and strategies. In this context, accessibility modeling of emergency related services such as health, fire, security services, or shelter sites in earthquake case can be a valuable tool for disaster managers, especially in assessing the vulnerability of urban districts as well as the sufficiency and appropriateness of the emergency service sites. Although there are several studies on the accessibility modeling of emergency related services in the aftermath of a disastrous event, the literature that integrates road closure probabilities into the accessibility estimation is quite limited. Hence, this paper aims to develop a methodology for modeling of accessibility based on a probabilistic estimation of road closures in earthquake case. The mentioned probabilities are predicted for given road network and hazard acting upon it and then incorporated into the accessibility analysis. The developed methodology is demonstrated through an application on health services and shelter sites in the city of Thessaloniki in Greece with and without considering the road closures, corresponding to road network under earthquake and normal conditions respectively. In this particular study, the road closures are associated to ground failure and damage to bridges, as well as damage of overpasses and collapses of buildings adjacent to road edges. The developed methodology could provide advanced and more realistic support to the emergency managers and decision-makers who deal with accessibility, location/allocation, and service/catchment area of critical facilities. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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    Exploratory and inferential methods for spatio-temporal analysis of residential fire clustering in urban areas
    (ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2013) Ceyhan, Elvan; Ertugay, Kivanc; Duzgun, Sebnem
    The spatio-temporal analysis of residential fires could allow decision makers to plan effective resource allocations in fire management according to fire clustering levels in space and time. In this study, we provide guidelines for the use of various methods in detecting the differences in clustering patterns of fire and non-fire (i.e., background residential) locations and how these patterns change over time. As a preliminary analysis step, various exploratory data analysis methods, such as, intensity plots (i.e., kernel density estimates) are used. Moreover, the use of Diggle's-function (a second order analysis technique) is proposed for detecting the clustering of residential fire locations (if any) and whether there is additional clustering (or regularity) in the locations of the fires compared to background residential pattern. A test for trend over time (in years, months, and weeks) of the fire location patterns are provided with a space-time interaction analysis by the spatio-temporal-function. Residential fire data from Cankaya Municipality of Ankara, Turkey is used as an illustrative example. The presented methodology is also applicable to residential fire data from similar urban settings. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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    Understanding Accessibility: Accessibility Modeling With Geographical Information Systems (GIS)
    (IGI GLOBAL, 2018) Ertugay, Kivanc; Duzgun, Sebnem H.
    Accessibility measures are generally concerned with equity and a better distribution of services in a territory and can be accepted as key variables for supporting supply/demand, location/allocation and service/catchment area related planning policies and strategies at national, regional, and local levels. Since accessibility measures need organization of huge and complex spatial data sets, accessibility modeling often lends itself to Geographical Information Systems (GIS) for analysis and presentation. Since numerous accessibility measures and modeling techniques ranging from simple to sophisticated can be found in the literature, this work aim to provide an overview of the theoretical framework and relevant background about GIS-based accessibility modeling process. The results could provide a significant support for the decision makers who are supposed to deal with transportation planning, accessibility modeling, location/allocation and service/catchment area related issues.