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    Mobility, saving and investment link: Evidence from Turkey
    (BILGESEL YAYINCILIK SAN & TIC LTD, 2012) Mangir, Fatih; Ertugrul, Hasan Murat
    Feldstein and Horioka (1980) examined the relationship between domestic saving-investment and capital movements assuming that while domestic investment is largely financed by domestic savings in closed economies with no international capital mobility, in open economies under perfect international capital mobility, domestic saving-investment correlations will be low However, result of their study reveals high correlation between investment and saving in 16 OECD industrialized countries implying low capital mobility. This result considered as Feldstein-Horioka Paradox (FH-P) in the literature. In this study, domestic saving and investment relationship for the Turkish economy have been investigated with FH model employing Bounds Test and Kalman filtering approach for 1998-2010 period. The Bounds Test results indicate long run relationship between domestic saving and investment. However, diminishing effects of saving over investment in the short run and results of Kalman filter indicates that there is capital mobility in Turkey.
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    The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey
    (ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2015) Ertugrul, Hasan Murat; Mangir, Fatih
    In the economic growth literature, the contribution of tourism to economic development has attracted great attention due to its significant roles as a source of foreign exchange earnings, creation of employment opportunities and an important source of public revenues in many countries. In this paper, we aim to analyse the empirical relationship between economic growth and tourism by employing different econometric techniques. First, we employed the Bound test approach developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001, Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326) in order to investigate the co-integration relationship between economic growth and tourism. Second, we used the Granger causality analysis for the 1998-2011 period and found evidence of a long-run uni-directional causality running from tourism to economic growth, but not vice versa. Our findings show that the Turkish case supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). Third, the autoregressive-distributed lag approach was employed in order to investigate the long-term and short-term static relationship between tourism and economic growth. The results show that tourism has a positive effect on gross domestic product and economic growth both in the long-term and short-term. Finally, the effect of tourism on economic growth was also investigated dynamically by employing the Kalman filter method. The findings of this method support the TLGH for Turkey.