The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey

Küçük Resim Yok

Tarih

2015

Dergi Başlığı

Dergi ISSN

Cilt Başlığı

Yayıncı

ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD

Erişim Hakkı

info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess

Özet

In the economic growth literature, the contribution of tourism to economic development has attracted great attention due to its significant roles as a source of foreign exchange earnings, creation of employment opportunities and an important source of public revenues in many countries. In this paper, we aim to analyse the empirical relationship between economic growth and tourism by employing different econometric techniques. First, we employed the Bound test approach developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001, Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326) in order to investigate the co-integration relationship between economic growth and tourism. Second, we used the Granger causality analysis for the 1998-2011 period and found evidence of a long-run uni-directional causality running from tourism to economic growth, but not vice versa. Our findings show that the Turkish case supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). Third, the autoregressive-distributed lag approach was employed in order to investigate the long-term and short-term static relationship between tourism and economic growth. The results show that tourism has a positive effect on gross domestic product and economic growth both in the long-term and short-term. Finally, the effect of tourism on economic growth was also investigated dynamically by employing the Kalman filter method. The findings of this method support the TLGH for Turkey.

Açıklama

Anahtar Kelimeler

granger causality, ARDL model, Kalman filter method, tourism

Kaynak

CURRENT ISSUES IN TOURISM

WoS Q Değeri

Q2

Scopus Q Değeri

Q1

Cilt

18

Sayı

7

Künye