Dış ticaret ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği
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Dosyalar
Tarih
2016
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
İktisat yazanının en önemli konularından biriside ekonomik büyümenin kaynaklarının araştırılmasıdır. Bunun üzerine yapılan incelemelerden elde edilen en baskın görüş dış ticarettir. Dış ticaret sadece ekonomik büyüme üzerinde değil aynı zamanda cari açık finansmanında da rol oynayarak, ülkelerin gelişimine katkıda bulunur. Şöyle ki son dönemlerde hızla ilerleyen teknoloji karşısında ülkeler daha sıkı bir rekabete girdikleri için dış ticaretlerini ileri seviyeye taşımaları gelişmişlik seviyelerine büyük oranda katkı sağlayarak, uluslararası pazarlarda ki güçlerini artıracaktır. Bu bağlamda değinilen bir noktada ülkelerin büyümelerinde dış ticaret dinamiklerinden hangisinin daha etkili olduğudur. Dünya genelinde yapılan analizlerde varılan genel kanı, büyümenin kaynağının gelişmiş ülkelerde ihracat, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde de ithalat olduğudur. Türkiye'de 1980'li yıllara kadar benimsenen dışa kapalı politikaların yerini serbest dış ticaret politikasının almasıyla, bu dönemden sonra Türkiye için uygulanan ihracat teşvikleri dikkat çekmiştir. Günümüze kadar olan sürede Türkiye 'nin dış pazarlarda etkin olması ve ihracat hacminin artması için çeşitli politikalar uygulanmaya koyulmuştur. Çalışmada 2000-2015 yılları arasında büyümenin nedeni araştırılmıştır. Kullanılan veriler TUİK tabanlı olup, çeyreklik dönemler halinde alınarak bir önceki döneme göre değişim yüzdeleriyle analiz edilmişlerdir. Yapılan diagnostik testlerin uygunluğu sonucunda verilere VAR analizinin uygulanmasına karar verilmiştir. VAR analiziyle, çalışma için kabul edilen ekonomik büyüme göstergesi olarak reel gayri safi yurt içi hasıla, ihracat ve ithalat verileri arasında nedensellik araştırması yapılmıştır. Granger nedensellik testi, nedenselliğin ithalata bağlı şekilde gerçekleşen ihracattan büyümeye doğru olduğunu ortaya koyar. Dolayısıyla 2000-2015 dönemleri için ithalatın ekonomik büyüme üzerideki payının ihracata oranla daha çok olduğu söylemek mümkündür.
One of the most important subjects of economics literature is to investigate the sources of economic growth. Where upon, one of the most dominant opinion obtained from the examination, foreign trade playing a role not only on economic growth but also in primary deficit financing, contributes to the development of the country. Namely, as countries enter into stiff competition against rapidly advancing technology in the globalized world, their moving the foreign trade to the advanced level is regarded as the power indicator on international markets. In this context, a point mentioned that which of the dynamics of foreign trade in the growth of countries is effective. The general conclusion reached in the world-wide analysis, the source of growth in developed countries is export, while in developing countries is import. Looking at the situation in terms of Turkey, the foreign policy adopted off until the 1980s was abandoned as of this date. After this period, export incentives applied for Turkey have attracted attention. In the period up to the present day, to be effective in foreign markets and to increase the export volume of Turkey, various policies has been put into practice. The concepts related to foreign trade and growth are mentioned in the first part of the study. By eplaining how to export and import, then the definitions and theories about economic growth are given. In the second part, Turkey's trade openness and foreign trade structure has been examined since 1960 and statistical tables related the subject took place. According to TUIK data in third and final section between 2000-2015, The reaason of the growth was investigated. The used data being quarter, took part in the analysis based on the percentage change compared to the previous period. By providing the performed diagnostic tests, it was decided to implement VAR analysis to the data. With VAR analysis, causality research was conducted among the real gross domestic product and export and import data that are the economic growth indicators, considered to work. The result obtained from the casuality test of Granger is the presence of two-way causal relationship between both exports and imports with real gross domestic product. But because of that these result is from the import through the conditional export and grow, it confirms that the share of imports on economic growth is more compared to the export for the 2000-2015 periods.
One of the most important subjects of economics literature is to investigate the sources of economic growth. Where upon, one of the most dominant opinion obtained from the examination, foreign trade playing a role not only on economic growth but also in primary deficit financing, contributes to the development of the country. Namely, as countries enter into stiff competition against rapidly advancing technology in the globalized world, their moving the foreign trade to the advanced level is regarded as the power indicator on international markets. In this context, a point mentioned that which of the dynamics of foreign trade in the growth of countries is effective. The general conclusion reached in the world-wide analysis, the source of growth in developed countries is export, while in developing countries is import. Looking at the situation in terms of Turkey, the foreign policy adopted off until the 1980s was abandoned as of this date. After this period, export incentives applied for Turkey have attracted attention. In the period up to the present day, to be effective in foreign markets and to increase the export volume of Turkey, various policies has been put into practice. The concepts related to foreign trade and growth are mentioned in the first part of the study. By eplaining how to export and import, then the definitions and theories about economic growth are given. In the second part, Turkey's trade openness and foreign trade structure has been examined since 1960 and statistical tables related the subject took place. According to TUIK data in third and final section between 2000-2015, The reaason of the growth was investigated. The used data being quarter, took part in the analysis based on the percentage change compared to the previous period. By providing the performed diagnostic tests, it was decided to implement VAR analysis to the data. With VAR analysis, causality research was conducted among the real gross domestic product and export and import data that are the economic growth indicators, considered to work. The result obtained from the casuality test of Granger is the presence of two-way causal relationship between both exports and imports with real gross domestic product. But because of that these result is from the import through the conditional export and grow, it confirms that the share of imports on economic growth is more compared to the export for the 2000-2015 periods.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Ticaret politikası, Commercial policy, İhracat, Exports, Dış ticaret, Foreign trade
Kaynak
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
Sayı
Künye
Köksal, M. (2016). Dış ticaret ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Selçuk Üniversitesi, Yayımlanmış yüksek lisans tezi, Konya.
