Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model
Yükleniyor...
Dosyalar
Tarih
2019
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Selçuk Üniversitesi
Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences
Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Rice is one of the staple foods in the Benin Republic. Annual rice consumption is increasing faster than annual rice production. That is why Benin is not yet self-sufficient in rice production. To meet the local demand, huge quantities of rice are imported. For country planning, forecasting is the main tool for predicting rice variables. This paper describes an empirical study that used a time series modeling approach (Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA model) to forecast rice production, rice consumption, rice importation, rice exportation and finally rice self-sufficiency in Benin. Based on ARIMA model, the rice self-sufficiency rate in Benin is forecasted to be 47%, 56%, 58%, 59% and 68% respectively in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The forecasts would be helpful for the policy makers to foresee ahead of time the future requirements of rice production, adopt appropriate measures to develop rice sector for effective rice self-sufficiency and to reduce rice importation.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
ARIMA model, İmportation, Riceproduction, Riceconsumption, Self-sufficiency, Benin Republic
Kaynak
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
33
Sayı
3
Künye
Akouegnonhou,O.,Demirbaş N.(2019).Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model.Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, 33(3), 206-217.
