Long-term Load Forecasting Based on Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System Using Real Energy Data

Basit Öğe Kaydı
dc.contributor.authorAkdemir, Bayram
dc.contributor.authorÇetinkaya, Nurettin
dc.date.accessioned2020-03-26T18:30:49Z
dc.date.available2020-03-26T18:30:49Z
dc.date.issued2012
dc.departmentSelçuk Üniversitesien_US
dc.description2nd International Conference on Advances in Energy Engineering (ICAEE) -- DEC 27-28, 2011 -- Bangkok, THAILANDen_US
dc.description.abstractEnergy production and distributing have critical importance for all countries especially developing countries. Studies about energy consumption, distributing and planning have much importance at the present day. In order to manage any power plant or take precautions about energy subject, many kinds of observations are used for short, mid and long term forecasting. Especially long term forecasting is in need to plan and carry on future energy demand and investment such as size of energy plant and location. Long term forecasting often includes power consumption data for past years, national incoming per year, rates of civilization, increasing population rates and moreover economical parameters. Long term forecasting data vary from one month to several years. Some of the forecasting models use mathematical formulas and statistical models such as correlation and regression models. In this study, artificial intelligence is used to forecast long term energy demand. Artificial intelligences are widely used for engineering problems to solve and obtain valid solutions. Adaptive neural fuzzy inference system is one of the most famous artificial intelligence methods and has been widely used in literature. In addition to numerical inputs, Adaptive neural fuzzy inference system has linguistics inputs such as good, bad and ugly. Adaptive neural fuzzy inference system is used to obtain long term forecasting results and the results are compared to mathematical methods to show validity and error levels. In order to show error levels, mean absolute error and mean absolute error percentage are used. Mean absolute error and mean absolute error percentages are very common and practical methods in literature. The obtained error results, from 2003 to 2025, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error are 1.504313 and 0.82439, respectively. Success of Adaptive neural fuzzy inference system for energy demand forecasting is 99.17%. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of 2nd International Conference on Advances in Energy Engineering (ICAEE).en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipAsia Pacific Human-Comp Interact Res Ctren_US
dc.identifier.citationAkdemir, B., Çetinkaya, N., (2012). Long-term Load Forecasting Based on Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System Using Real Energy Data. 2011 2nd International Conference on Advances in Energy Engineering (Icaee), 14, 794-799. Doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2011.12.1013
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.egypro.2011.12.1013en_US
dc.identifier.endpage799en_US
dc.identifier.issn1876-6102en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityN/Aen_US
dc.identifier.startpage794en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2011.12.1013
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12395/28199
dc.identifier.volume14en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000305958700125en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/Aen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.institutionauthorAkdemir, Bayram
dc.institutionauthorÇetinkaya, Nurettin
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElsevier Science Bven_US
dc.relation.ispartof2011 2nd International Conference on Advances in Energy Engineering (Icaee)en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesEnergy Procedia
dc.relation.publicationcategoryKonferans Öğesi - Uluslararası - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.selcuk20240510_oaigen_US
dc.subjectAdaptive neural fuzzy inference systemen_US
dc.subjectLong term forecastingen_US
dc.subjectMean absolute erroren_US
dc.subjectMean absolute error percentageen_US
dc.subjectReal data seten_US
dc.titleLong-term Load Forecasting Based on Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System Using Real Energy Dataen_US
dc.typeConference Objecten_US

Dosyalar

Orijinal paket
Listeleniyor 1 - 1 / 1
Küçük Resim
İsim:
28199.pdf
Boyut:
317.75 KB
Biçim:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Açıklama:
Makale Dosyası
İndir

Koleksiyon

WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu
Elektrik Elektronik Mühendisliği/Makale Koleksiyonu
Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu