İnşaat sektörü ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (2003-2017)
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Tarih
2018
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Bu çalışmada, son yıllarda Türkiye ekonomisinde önemli bir yerteşkil eden inşaat sektörü ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiincelenmiştir. Türkiye açısından 2000’li yıllardan itibaren inşaatsektörünün GSYİH içindeki payı artarak devam etmiş ve %5düzeylerinden%7,5 düzeylerine çıkmıştır. Ayrıca bu sektörünoluşturduğu dışsallık hesaba katıldığında dolaylı olarak bu payın%30’lara çıktığı görülmektedir. Ayrıca inşaat sektörü oluşturduğuistihdamdan dolayı ekonomiye yaptığı katkı ile ön plana çıkmaktadır.Çalışmada 2003-2017 yılları arasında inşaat sektörü ve GSYİHdeğişkenlerinin çeyrek dönemlik cari değerleri kullanılmıştır. Cari değerile ifade edilen veriler, ilk olarak enflasyondan arındırılıp reel halegetirilmiş ve sonrasında mevsimsel etkiden arındırılmıştır. Dahasonrasında zaman serisi içeren verilerde ilk olarak durağanlık testiyapılmış ve serilerin her ikisinin de birinci dereceden durağan olduğutespit edilmiştir. Aynı dereceden durağan olan serilerde uzun dönemilişki koentegrasyon ile test edilmiştir. Ayrıca değişkenler arasındanormalize edilmiş katsayı hesaplandığında, inşaat sektörünün GSYİH’yıpozitif yönde ve anlamlı etkilediği görülmüştür (inşaat sektöründeki 1birimlik artış, GSYİH’yı 0,71 birim arttırmıştır). Yapısal nedensellikanalizinde kısa dönemde inşaat sektöründen GSYİH’ya doğru, uzundönemde ise karşılıklı bir ilişkinin olduğu görülmüştür. Sonuç olarak budönemler arasında Türkiye’de, inşaat sektörünün dışsallık oluşturduğuyan sektörler ve sağladığı istihdam ile birlikte ele alınması durumunda,ekonomik büyüme içerisinde kısa ve uzun dönemde önemli bir belirleyiciolduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sebeple sektörünün ekonomik büyümeiçindeki önemi ve yerinin devam ettirilmesi için, gerekli olan tedbirlerinalınması ve sürdürülebilir bir sektör büyümesinin sağlanması
In this study, the relationship between construction sector, whichhas taken a significant place in Turkey’s economy recently, and economicgrowth was examined. In Turkey, since the 2000s the share of theconstruction sector in GDP has continued to increase, and it hasincreased from the 5% to 7,5% level. In addition, when the externalitythat this sector created is taken into account, it is seen that this amountindirectly increased up to 30%. Also, the contribution of the constructionsector to the economy due to the employment comes into prominence.For the empirical part of the study, the values of the constructionsector and the GDP variables, expressed in quarterly periods between2003-2017, were used. The value expressed iregarding current value wasfirst deflated and made real, and then the seasonal effect was removed.First, stationarity test was performed for the data given within timeseries, and both of the series were found to be stationary at the firstdegree. The long-term relationship in the same stationary series wastested by co-integration. Moreover, when the normalized coefficientbetween the variables was calculated, it was seen that the constructionsector positively and meaningfully affected the GDP (an increase in thenumber of units in the construction sector has increased GDP by 0.71units). In the structural causality analysis, it was seen that there was arelationship from construction sector towards GDP in the short term, anda mutual relationship between the two in the long term. As aconsequence, between these periods in Turkey, it is determined thatconstruction industry is an important determinant for economic growthin both short and long term, in the case of it is handled with its sub-sectors that generate externalities and its employment opportunities. Forthis reason, it is necessary to take precautions and to provide sustainablesector growth in order to maintain the importance and position of thesector in economic growth.
In this study, the relationship between construction sector, whichhas taken a significant place in Turkey’s economy recently, and economicgrowth was examined. In Turkey, since the 2000s the share of theconstruction sector in GDP has continued to increase, and it hasincreased from the 5% to 7,5% level. In addition, when the externalitythat this sector created is taken into account, it is seen that this amountindirectly increased up to 30%. Also, the contribution of the constructionsector to the economy due to the employment comes into prominence.For the empirical part of the study, the values of the constructionsector and the GDP variables, expressed in quarterly periods between2003-2017, were used. The value expressed iregarding current value wasfirst deflated and made real, and then the seasonal effect was removed.First, stationarity test was performed for the data given within timeseries, and both of the series were found to be stationary at the firstdegree. The long-term relationship in the same stationary series wastested by co-integration. Moreover, when the normalized coefficientbetween the variables was calculated, it was seen that the constructionsector positively and meaningfully affected the GDP (an increase in thenumber of units in the construction sector has increased GDP by 0.71units). In the structural causality analysis, it was seen that there was arelationship from construction sector towards GDP in the short term, anda mutual relationship between the two in the long term. As aconsequence, between these periods in Turkey, it is determined thatconstruction industry is an important determinant for economic growthin both short and long term, in the case of it is handled with its sub-sectors that generate externalities and its employment opportunities. Forthis reason, it is necessary to take precautions and to provide sustainablesector growth in order to maintain the importance and position of thesector in economic growth.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
İnşaat Sektörü, Ekonomik Büyüme, Nedensellik Testi, Construction Sector, Economic Growth, Causality Test, İktisat
Kaynak
Turkish Studies
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
13
Sayı
14
Künye
Erdogan, S. (2018). İnşaat Sektörü ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği (2003-2017). Turkish Studies, 13(14), 51-65.
