Capacity-constrained supplier selection model with lost sales under stochastic demand behaviour

In today's market conditions, volume of demand is quite uncertain and thus it is hard to estimate. In many cases, buyer is prone to use supply chain flexibility rather than inventory holding strategy to withstand demand uncertainty. We assume that the buyer releases a replenishment order to the supplier for each cycle (or period) under the contract which is mainly composed of four parameters: (1) supply cost per unit, (2) minimum order quantity, (3) order quantity reduction penalty and (4) maximum capacity of the supplier. Based on these parameters, there are two flexibility options that buyer should evaluate in the order of cycle (1) issue an order smaller than the minimum order quantity and pay the related penalty and (2) place no order and lose the sales. Hence, Q (lost) emerges as a critical buyer decision, the order quantity, below which no order is placed. Total expected supply cost plus lost sales, as a function of Q (lost) is presented. We derive the optimal Q (lost) that minimises the total cost function. Since capacity of each supplier is finite, we then develop a supplier selection model with total cost minimisation over the suppliers subject to capacity constraint that has a stochastic nature stemming from demand behaviour. Linearisation on the model is performed using chance-constrained programming approach. From a given set of supply bids from the potential supply chain partners, the buyer is able to make a quantifiable choice.