Türkiye'de Enerji Tüketimi Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Yapısal Kırılmalı Zaman Serisi Analizi
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Date
2014
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Selçuk Üniversitesi
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Abstract
Günümüzde, enerji sosyal ve ekonomik gelişmenin en temel girdilerinden birisi haline gelmiştir. Kömür, doğalgaz petrol vb. enerji kaynaklarının sınırlı olduğu gerçeği göz önünde bulundurulursa, enerji kaynaklarının verimli kullanılması gerekliliği yadsınamaz. Ülkelerin enerji kullanımı ile alakalı geleceği göz ardı etmeyen, sağlıklı ve kararlı politikalar üretmesi gerekmektedir. Büyük ölçekli sanayi tesislerinin üretim yapabilmesi için enerji vazgeçilmez bir üretim faktörü durumundadır. Büyümeye sağladığı katkı, enerjinin bir gelişmişlik ölçütü olarak kullanılmasına olanak sağlamıştır. Bu yüzden gelişmiş ülkeler enerji üretim ve tüketimine büyük önem vermektedir. Artan bu öneminden dolayı enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki birçok çalışmaya konu olmuştur. Türkiye gibi enerji üretimi, enerji tüketimini karşılayamayan ülkeler için ise durum çok daha stratejik politikaların gerekli olduğunu göstermektedir. Enerji kaynaklarının yüksek fiyatlardan arz edildiği ülkemizde, petrol, doğalgaz ve elektrik gibi büyük öneme sahip girdiler üzerine getirilen vergilerin, üretici maliyetleri üzerine etkilerinin detaylı bir biçimde ele alınması gerekmektedir. Nitekim enerji maliyetlerinin çok arttığı bir ortamda, rekabet gücünün kaybedilmesi yerli sermayenin ve yerli malların dışlanmasını beraberinde getirerek ulusal gelirin düşmesi ile sonuçlanacaktır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de 1970-2009 dönemleri arasında yıllık verilerle, enerji tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi yapısal kırılmalı modeller aracılığı ile incelemektir. Çalışmada kullanılan verilerden Reel Gayrı Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla, Gayrı Safi Sermaye oluşumu ve ihracat verileri Dünya Bankası’nın web sitesinden, Toplam Enerji Tüketimi verileri ise Dünya Enerji Konseyi’nin web sitesinden alınmıştır. Bunun için öncelikli olarak Zivot-Andrews (Z-A) yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi uygulanmış olup, serilerin birinci farkında I(1) durağan oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Z-A birim kök testinden sonra Gregory-Hansen eşbütünleşme analizi yapılmış, seriler arasında uzun dönemde eşbütünleşme bulunmuştur. Bulunan bu eşbütünleşme seriler arasında en az bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olabileceğini göstermiştir. Granger nedensellik analizi sonucunda, Reel Gayrı Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla’dan sermayeye, enerji tüketiminden sermayeye, ihracattan Reel Gayrı Safi yurt İçi Hasıla’ya, ihracattan enerji tüketimine ve yine ihracattan sermayeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuş olup, buna karşın enerji tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanmamıştır.
Recently, energy has become one of the most basic inputs of social and economic development. Considering that the energy resources like coal, natural gas and fuel (ect) are limited resources, it is hard to ignore the necessity of using them efficiently. All the countries need to produce healthy and determined energy policies which are not ignoring the future of energy usage. Energy is an indispensable product factor for the large scale industrial facilities and so developed and developing countries attribute a great importance to production and consumption processes of energy. Owing to this contribution on economic growth, energy has accepted as a development criteria. Because of the increasing importance of energy, the relationship in between energy consumption and economic growth has been examined by many researches. The situation is much harder for the countries which are not able to produce their own needs, like Turkey. They should to develop more strategic approaches to the energy issue. Turkey has one of the highest fuel prices on earth. By means of the taxes have been put on the prices. In such a country it is considered necessary to examine the effects of these taxes which have been put on the inputs like, electricity of natural gas on manufacturing industries. Manufacturers in a country of high energy costs, might become incomponent in global markets, so that they limit their efforts with their domestic markets and thus, they might be diminishing their production dramatically. The aim of this study is, to examine the relationship in between energy consumption and economic growth in the time period of 1970-2009 with annual data, trough ‘Structural Break Models’. The data of Real Gross Domestic Product, Gross domestic Capital Formation and Exports were taken from website of World Bank, the data of total energy consumption were taken from website of World Energy Council. For this purpose, at first Zivot-Andrews Structural Break Unit Root Test has been conducted and it is determined that the series are stationary in the first difference I(1). Then as the second step, Gregory-Hansen Structural Break Co-integration Analysis has been conducted and a long term co-integration has been found between the series. This cointegration has shown that at least one causality relationship could be found between the series. Next, Granger Causality Analysis has been conducted and several one sided causality relationships has been found, from RGDP to capital, from energy consumption to capital, from export to RGDP, from export to energy consumption and from export to capital. However, no causality relationship can be found in between energy consumption and economic growth.
Recently, energy has become one of the most basic inputs of social and economic development. Considering that the energy resources like coal, natural gas and fuel (ect) are limited resources, it is hard to ignore the necessity of using them efficiently. All the countries need to produce healthy and determined energy policies which are not ignoring the future of energy usage. Energy is an indispensable product factor for the large scale industrial facilities and so developed and developing countries attribute a great importance to production and consumption processes of energy. Owing to this contribution on economic growth, energy has accepted as a development criteria. Because of the increasing importance of energy, the relationship in between energy consumption and economic growth has been examined by many researches. The situation is much harder for the countries which are not able to produce their own needs, like Turkey. They should to develop more strategic approaches to the energy issue. Turkey has one of the highest fuel prices on earth. By means of the taxes have been put on the prices. In such a country it is considered necessary to examine the effects of these taxes which have been put on the inputs like, electricity of natural gas on manufacturing industries. Manufacturers in a country of high energy costs, might become incomponent in global markets, so that they limit their efforts with their domestic markets and thus, they might be diminishing their production dramatically. The aim of this study is, to examine the relationship in between energy consumption and economic growth in the time period of 1970-2009 with annual data, trough ‘Structural Break Models’. The data of Real Gross Domestic Product, Gross domestic Capital Formation and Exports were taken from website of World Bank, the data of total energy consumption were taken from website of World Energy Council. For this purpose, at first Zivot-Andrews Structural Break Unit Root Test has been conducted and it is determined that the series are stationary in the first difference I(1). Then as the second step, Gregory-Hansen Structural Break Co-integration Analysis has been conducted and a long term co-integration has been found between the series. This cointegration has shown that at least one causality relationship could be found between the series. Next, Granger Causality Analysis has been conducted and several one sided causality relationships has been found, from RGDP to capital, from energy consumption to capital, from export to RGDP, from export to energy consumption and from export to capital. However, no causality relationship can be found in between energy consumption and economic growth.
Description
Keywords
Enerji Tüketimi, Reel Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla, Yapısal Kırılma, Birim Kök, Eşbütünleşme, Nedensellik, Energy Consumption, GDP, Structural Break, Unit Root, Co-integration, Causality
Journal or Series
Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi
WoS Q Value
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Volume
Issue
32
Citation
Gürbüz, S., Erdoğan, S., (2014). Türkiye'de Enerji Tüketimi Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Yapısal Kırılmalı Zaman Serisi Analizi. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 32, 79-87.
